matthew-stafford-rams.jpg
Imagn Images

The NFL MVP Award usually is given to a quarterback, as players at that position have won it on 48 occasions since the AP began presenting the honor in 1957 -- 30 times more than running backs. A signal-caller has taken the trophy home each of the last 12 years and 17 of the past 18, with Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson being the lone non-QB recipient over that span, back in 2012.

There has been no shortage of candidates for MVP during the 2025 NFL season, although most of them fell out of contention at one point or another. Meanwhile, previous two-time winners Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson never really garnered any consideration. The former did not perform at an elite level as his Kansas City Chiefs failed to reach the postseason for the first time in his nine-year career. The latter missed three of the Baltimore Ravens' games in October with a hamstring injury, played poorly numerous times upon his return and sat out in Week 17 with a back issue.

Daniel Jones was an early frontrunner for MVP after guiding the Indianapolis Colts to eight wins in the first 10 games, but the team returned from its Week 11 bye and lost three straight, with the 28-year-old playing with a fractured leg in those contests before suffering a season-ending torn Achilles in the last one. The Colts' losing streak has reached six games in his absence and their playoff drought has climbed to five years.

Dak Prescott enters Week 18 with a league-leading 4,482 passing yards and ranks third with 30 touchdown tosses, but the Dallas Cowboys didn't help his cause for MVP. They were 3-5-1 prior to their bye and followed a three-game winning streak with a three-game slide to slip out of the playoff picture. 

Baker Mayfield seemed like a strong contender as he had the Tampa Bay Buccaneers heading toward their fifth consecutive NFC South title with a 6-2 record. But like Indianapolis, the Buccaneers have been a different team since their bye as they have lost seven of their last eight contests. Tampa Bay still can capture the division crown but needs to defeat the first-place Carolina Panthers in their season finale and hope the Atlanta Falcons either tie or lose to the New Orleans Saints. However, Mayfield has no chance to seize the MVP trophy.

Aaron Rodgers is the only player to win back-to-back MVPs since Peyton Manning repeated in 2009, doing so in 2020 and 2021 while with the Green Bay Packers. The 42-year-old Pittsburgh Steelers QB will maintain that distinction for at least one more year. While Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills has shown glimpses of the form that earned him the award last season, he didn't perform at that level on a regular basis and the team's five-year reign atop the AFC East came to an end, although they did earn a wild card berth.

Jared Goff is third in the NFL with 4,233 passing yards and second with 33 TD throws, but the Detroit Lions also faltered after their bye, losing six of nine and missing the playoffs. Bo Nix of the Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks QB Sam Darnold and Trevor Lawrence of the Jacksonville Jaguars enter Week 18 with an opportunity to help their teams finish with the No. 1 seed in their conferences, but their statistics -- while impressive -- aren't those expected of an MVP. And Caleb Williams improved greatly from his 2024 rookie season to help the Chicago Bears end their four-year playoff drought and capture their first NFC North title since 2018, but he likely won't receive any first-place votes.

That leaves two true candidates to consider for the 2025 MVP honor. Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams has the numbers, as he tops the NFL with a career-high 42 touchdown passes and trails league leader Prescott in passing yards by only 34 with 4,448, which marks the 10th time he has eclipsed the 4,000-yard mark. 

However, the playoff-bound Rams have lost back-to-back games and three of their last five, ending their chances of repeating as NFC West champions. Will their late dropoff affect the AP's decision to reward the 37-year-old Stafford for his stellar production?

The oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook think so, as Stafford is the second favorite to win the MVP Award at +225. The favorite is Drake Maye, who is one of the reasons the New England Patriots have rebounded from back-to-back 4-13 seasons and and won their first AFC East title since 2019.

Selected with the third overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, Maye showed signs of becoming another franchise quarterback for the Patriots as a rookie and has made believers of many this year. The 23-year-old is third in the league with 30 touchdown tosses -- exactly twice as many as he had in 13 games last season -- and fourth with 4,203 passing yards (2,276 in 2024).

After New England lost two of its first three contests this campaign, Maye helped orchestrate a 10-game winning streak that catapulted the team to the top of the AFC East. The Patriots uncharacteristically squandered a 21-point lead against Buffalo in Week 15 and dropped a 35-31 decision, but Maye -- who ran for two TDs versus the Bills -- refused to allow them to have a letdown as he threw for a season-high 380 yards and two scores in a 28-24 triumph at Baltimore the following week and had five touchdown tosses in last Sunday's 42-10 rout of the hapless New York Jets.

Thanks in large part to Maye's poise, confidence and natural ability, New England has a chance to obtain the No. 1 seed in the AFC this weekend as it needs to defeat the visiting Miami Dolphins and have the Broncos lose to the Los Angeles Chargers at home. Maye's attributes also helped make him a -295 favorite for the MVP Award at DraftKings. 

The only thing at stake for the Rams in Week 18 is their playoff seeding, and that could be determined a day before they even take the field Sunday against the woeful Arizona Cardinals, who are 3-13 and have lost eight in a row. If the San Francisco 49ers defeat the Seahawks on Saturday, the Rams would be the sixth seed in the NFC. But if Seattle wins, they climb up to No. 5 by beating Arizona.

Rams head coach Sean McVay plans to play Stafford against the Cardinals regardless, but how long he keeps him in the game is unknown. Maye, who threw for two touchdowns and ran for another in New England's 33-27 triumph at Miami in Week 2, also is expected to be under center this Sunday, but he is unplayable for MVP at this price, so getting a plus-money return by taking Stafford and hoping he puts up big numbers against Arizona's 26th-ranked defense is the better option.